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Thursday, 10 February 2022

EUR/USD HOLDS ONTO DAILY GAINS, LOOKING AT 1.1450

9 February 2022, 18:43

  • EUR/USD manages to remain above 1.1400, with a modest bullish bias.
  • US dollar weaker amid a retreat in yields and risk appetite.

The EUR/USD is moving sideways between 1.1425 and 1.1445 on Wednesday with a bullish bias, on the back of a weaker greenback across the board and amid tightening expectations from the European Central Bank.  

DXY and yields down, stock up

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling 0.20% on Wednesday affected by the decline in US yields that moved away of multi-month highs. The US 10-year stands at 1.92% and the 30-year at 2.22%. Also higher equity prices weigh on the dollar. In Wall Street the Dow Jones again 0.82% and the Nasdaq 1.53%.

Market participants await Thursday US CPI reading. The index is expected to have climbed in January to 7.3% (annual rate).  The numbers will likely influence on market expectations about the Federal Reserve’s policy.

The EUR/USD is up more than 150 pips from the level it had a week ago on the back of a change in tightening expectation from the ECB. The rally found resistance at the January top at 1.1480/85. The mentioned area continues to be a key level that if broken would clear the way for 1.1500 and more.

In the very short-term while above 1.1425, the intraday bullish bias is likely to remain in place. A slide below would expose again 1.1400. The next support below stands at 1.1370/80, the last defense to the current positive short-term outlook for the euro.

USD/JPY PRICE ANALYSIS: RETREATS FROM WEEKLY-TOPS TO 115.40S AMID A LIGHT CALENDAR

9 February 2022, 19:05

  • Broad US dollar weakness across the board weighed on the USD/JPY pair.
  • Falling US Treasury yields and demand for riskier assets keep the USD/JPY subdued.
  • USD/JPY Technical Outlook: Remains upward biased ahead of the US CPI for January.

On Wednesday, the USD/JPY retreats from weekly highs ahead of the release of US inflation figures, alongside the slip of US Treasury yields. At the time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at 115.44, down 0.08%.

Financial markets mood is positive, as shown by European and US equity indices printing gains. The US 10-year Treasury yield is dipping three basis points, to sit at 1.925%, while the US Dollar Index drops 0.20%, currently at 95.44.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the overnight session for North American traders, the pair reached a daily high at 115.68, followed by a drop to the downslope one-month-old resistance/support trendline that passes around the 115.25-35 area. Even though the USD/JPY retreated to the abovementioned trendline, the pair remained above it, confirming the upward bias. 

That said, the USD/JPY first resistance would be 116.00. Breach of the latter could pave the way for further gains and expose a 24-year-old downslope trendline drawn from August 1998, swing highs that pass around 117.00. An upward break would expose the January 2017 swing high at 118.61.


BOC MACKLEM: SPEAKING LIVE, SAYS THERE IS EVIDENCE GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN PROBLEMS MAY HAVE PEAKED

9 February 2022, 19:16

Macklem is speaking live to the Canadian chamber of commerce.

Key comments

Covid recovery phase is chance to make long overdue gains in Canadian productivity.

Productivity growth is vital to economic growth, increasing wages without raising unit labour costs.

US capital has moved to higher-productivity sectors in larger amounts than in Canada, ‘has been more nimble’.

Expect that business investment will grow faster in Canada than in US.

Some evidence global supply chain problems may have peaked.

  • Eyes on USD/CAD as BOC Governor Macklem responds to questions on economy

Watch live: BoC governor Macklem

Macklem speaks live to the Canadian chamber of commerce.


EUR/USD COULD BREAK OUT TOWARD A TEST OF 1.16 – SCOTIABANK


9 February 2022, 16:23

EUR/USD continues to trade in a narrow 1.1400-1.1450 channel. Analysts at Scotiabank spot a technical pattern that could imply a move towards the 1.16 level.

Support past 1.1400/90 is 1.1370

“EUR price action is forming a bullish flag pattern that could see it break out toward a test of 1.16.”

“Resistance past the mid-figure zone is 1.1484 followed by 1.1515/25 (the lows of Oct/Nov).”

“Support past 1.1400/90 is 1.1370, the mid-1.13s, and the 50-day MA at 1.1324.”

Wednesday, 9 February 2022

$3.6B in Bitcoin Linked to 2016 Bitfinex Hack Recovered

Cryptocurrency worth $3.6 billion has been recovered by the U.S. Justice Department — its biggest financial seizure on record.
The digital assets have been directly linked to the 2016 hack of Bitfinex, when coins now worth $4.5 billion were stolen.

Two people have been arrested in Manhattan on suspicion of attempting to launder the stolen funds.

Deputy Attorney General Lisa O. Monaco said the successful operation shows "cryptocurrency is not a safe haven for criminals," adding:

"In a futile effort to maintain digital anonymity, the defendants laundered stolen funds through a labyrinth of cryptocurrency transactions. Thanks to the meticulous work of law enforcement, the department once again showed how it can and will follow the money, no matter what form it takes."

Ilya Lichtenstein and his wife Heather Morgan are accused of conspiring to launder the proceeds of 119,754 BTC.
Court documents claimed that a hacker had managed to infiltrate Bitfinex's systems — initiating over 2,000 unauthorized transactions in the process. Stolen Bitcoin was subsequently sent to a digital wallet that Lichtenstein allegedly controlled.
An investigation suggests that 25,000 BTC was moved through a "complicated money laundering scheme" over the past five years — and some of the proceeds wound up in financial accounts that both Lichtenstein and Morgan controlled.
Court-authorized search warrants of their online accounts later uncovered private keys to the digital wallet where 94,000 BTC taken from Bitfinex all those years ago was stored.

'Criminals Always Leave Tracks'

Detectives described the defendants' techniques for laundering the crypto as "methodical and calculated." As well as relying on fictitious identities, funds were mixed through crypto exchanges and darknet markets — all with a view to obscuring transaction histories and throwing law enforcement agencies off the scent. Matthew M. Graves, U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia, said in a news release:

"Cryptocurrency and the virtual currency exchanges trading in it comprise an expanding part of the U.S. financial system, but digital currency heists executed through complex money laundering schemes could undermine confidence in cryptocurrency."

The charges of conspiracy to commit money laundering and conspiracy to defraud the U.S. collectively carry a maximum sentence of 25 years behind bars.
About a week ago, WhaleAlert had detected that 94,643 BTC from the wallet linked to the Bitfinex hack had moved — in regular tranches of 10,000 BTC.
The hack has gone down in history as one of the biggest to affect a crypto exchange — and at the time, Bitcoin's value plunged from $600 to $400.
Back in the summer of 2020, Bitfinex had announced that it was willing to offer up to $400 million if the funds were returned — and even said that it would allow the hackers to keep 25% of the stolen property as long as they returned the rest.

In a statement on Tuesday, Bitfinex said:

"We are pleased that the U.S. Department of Justice has today announced that it has recovered a significant portion of the Bitcoin stolen during the August 2016 security breach. We have been cooperating extensively with the DoJ since its investigation began and will continue to do so."

It now plans to "follow appropriate legal processes to establish our rights to a return of the stolen Bitcoin."