GOLD PRICE FORECAST: XAU/USD EYES A RALLY TOWARDS $1,878 AMID UKRAINE TENSIONS – CONFLUENCE DETECTOR

14 February 2022, 11:06

• Gold price gathers strength for the next upswing towards $1,878.
• US inflation concerns and the Russia-Ukraine turmoil to offer support.
• Gold corrects before resuming uptrend, focus on Russia-Ukraine crisis.

Gold price is taking a breather after a blistering $40 rally seen on Friday, which drove the bright metal to the highest level in three months at $1,866. Reports about a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine this week roiled markets and triggered a massive flight to safety into gold price. The bullion remains in a win-win situation going forward amid rising inflation concerns and as investors watch over the geopolitical risks concerning Ukraine. Gold traders also await Wednesday’s US Retail Sales data and the Fed minutes for fresh directives.

Read: Russia could initiate military action before the end of the Winter Olympics: Could this affect stocks?

Gold Price: Key levels to watch

The Technical Confluences Detector shows that the gold price has recaptured powerful support now resistance at $1,855, as its corrective pullback fades.

That level is the convergence of the Fibonacci 23.6% one-day and the previous month’s high.

The immediate upside barrier is seen at the Bollinger Band one-day Upper at $1,859. The next bullish target appears at the previous day’s high of $1,866.

Acceptance above the latter will fuel a fresh upswing towards $1,878, the pivot point one-day R1.

On the flip side, if gold price finds a strong foothold below the aforementioned $1,855, then the Fibonacci 23.6% one-week at $1,851 will get tested.

Further down, the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day at $1,848 will come to buyers’ rescue. The last line of defense for gold bulls is aligned at $1,843, the intersection of the Fibonacci 38.2% one-week, SMA10 four-hour and pivot point one-month R1.

Here is how it looks on the tool

About Technical Confluences Detector

The TCD (Technical Confluences Detector) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc.  If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size.

GBP/USD: 1.3500 ALIGNS AS CRITICAL SUPPORT

14 February 2022, 12:20

GBP/USD has declined toward 1.3500 pressured by risk aversion. The bearish pressure could ramp up in case that levels turn into resistance, FXStreet’s Eren Sengezer reports.

1.3520 forms the first technical resistance

“1.3500 (psychological level, Fibonacci 50% retracement of the latest uptrend) aligns as critical support. If a four-hour candle closes below that level and uses it as resistance, the next bearish target is located at 1.3470 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) ahead of 1.3440 (static level).”

“On the upside, 1.3520 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) forms the first technical resistance before the 1.3550/1.3560 area (200-period SMA, Fibonacci 23.6% retracement).”

 

GOLD PRICE FORECAST: XAU/USD REVIVES HOPES AMID RUSSIA-UKRAINE GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

14 February 2022, 09:04

Gold price is trading around $1,850, retreating from three-month highs of $1,866, as investors take profits off the table after the recent upsurge. But as FXStreet’s Dhwani Mehta notes, XAU/USD is set to resume the uptrend.

Golden cross remains in play

“The looming geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine will remain the biggest risks for markets, which could potentially keep gold underpinned.”

“Immediate support is seen at $1,846, the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level of the rally from January 28 that peaked out last Friday. Further south, the February 10 highs of $1,842 will be tested, below which floors could open up towards 38.2% Fibo level of the same ascent.”

“The correction appears short-lived for gold, as the golden cross remains in play while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) still holds comfortable above the central line, despite the latest downtick.”

“If buyers regain poise, then a retest of the multi-month highs at $1,866 will be inevitable. The next critical resistance area is seen around $1,870-$1,872 price zone, which is the November peaks.

FOREX TODAY: EYES ON CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS, RUSSIA-UKRAINE HEADLINES

14 February 2022, 08:54

Here is what you need to know on Monday, February 14:

Safe-haven flows dominated the financial markets ahead of the weekend amid renewed fears over a Russia-Ukraine military conflict and investors stay cautious early Monday. The economic docket will not be featuring any high-impact data releases and the risk perception is likely to remain the primary driver of financial markets. Additionally, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde and St. Louis Fed president James Bullard will be delivering speeches later in the day.

Late Friday, several news outlets reported that Russia was expected to invade Ukraine as soon as this week. Over the weekend, the White House said that the US will respond "swiftly and decisively" to any further Russian aggression against Ukraine. US President Biden's national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, told CNN that an invasion could take place before February 20.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Index lost more than 2% on Monday and the Shanghai Composite Index is down more than 1%. US stock index futures trade flat in the early European session and the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield, which lost nearly 6% on Friday, is up 2% at 1.95%. The US Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback's performance against a basket of six major currencies, is staying relatively quiet near 96.00 after rising 0.5% last week.

Meanwhile, oil prices continue to push higher with the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading at its highest level since September 2014 at $94.20.

EUR/USD fell sharply late Friday and touched its lowest level in more than a week at 1.1329. The pair is moving sideways in a relatively tight range below 1.1350 early Monday.

GBP/USD is posting small losses below 1.3550 heading into the European session. The UK's Office for National Statistics will release the labour market data on Tuesday.

USD/JPY fell nearly 100 pips on Russia-Ukraine headlines but seems to have steadied above 115.00. Recovering US Treasury bond yields are helping the pair limit its losses.

Gold surged to its strongest level since mid-November at $1,865 on Friday. XAU/USD was last seen consolidating its gains around $1,850.

Bitcoin registered small losses over the weekend after facing heavy selling pressure on Friday but it managed to stay afloat above $40,000. Ethereum moves sideways below $3,000 after closing the previous four days in the negative territory.

USD/TRY PRICE ANALYSIS: SELLERS KEEP REINS AROUND $13.50

14 February 2022, 08:57

• USD/TRY prints mild gains after four consecutive days of losses.
• Corrective pullback from 200-SMA fails to cross 50-DMA, steady RSI adds strength to bearish bias.
• Fortnight-old horizontal resistance also challenges pair buyers, monthly support line restrict immediate declines.

USD/TRY fades bounce off 200-SMA while taking rounds to $13.50 heading into Monday’s European session.

In doing so, the Turkish lira (TRY) pair remains below 50-SMA amid steady RSI conditions.

Other than the immediate hurdle around $13.55, comprising the 50-SMA, a two-week-old horizontal resistance area around $13.65 will also challenge the USD/TRY bulls.

Should USD/TRY prices rise past $13.65, the pair’s run-up towards the $14.00 threshold can’t be ignored.

Meanwhile, a one-month-old ascending support line near $13.35 restricts short-term declines of the pair ahead of the horizontal support zone from January 20, close to $13.25.

During the quote’s weakness past $13.25, the $13.00 round figure and January’s low near $12.75 should lure the USD/TRY bears.

USD/TRY: Four-hour chart